According to @BullTheoryio, the Nasdaq is approaching a new all-time high while BTC is down 27% and ETH is down 39% from their peaks, indicating a significant crypto–equity divergence that may set up a rotation trade as crypto lags equities. source: @BullTheoryio The author adds that the Russell 2000 is near its peak and equities have already priced in improving macro conditions and rising rate-cut odds, while crypto has not; if liquidity continues to improve and the rate-cut path stays supportive, the catch-up phase typically comes from BTC and ETH as the risk curve expands. source: @BullTheoryio

According to @cas_abbe, the probability of a U.S. December rate cut has jumped from about 35% a week ago to 84.7% today, referencing odds commonly derived from Fed funds futures pricing. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025; CME Group FedWatch Tool. @cas_abbe also states that Core PPI came in lower than expected, which he says should further boost rate-cut odds. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025. For traders, the macro backdrop matters for crypto because crypto prices have increasingly moved in sync with equities since 2020, making BTC and ETH sensitive to policy-easing signals. Source: International Monetary Fund blog, 2022, Crypto Prices Move in Sync With Stocks.

According to @cas_abbe, the US PPI and Core PPI prints are due today at 8:30 a.m. ET with consensus at 2.7% for both measures, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, the release is crucial as the odds of a rate cut next month are rising, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, a lower-than-expected PPI would increase rate-cut odds and lift the crypto market, source: @cas_abbe.

According to @charliebilello, markets now imply a 79% probability of a December rate cut, up from 42% a week earlier, signaling a rapid shift toward easier policy expectations, source: @charliebilello. Equities responded with a broad risk-on move: S&P 500 +1.0%, Nasdaq 100 +1.7%, and the Magnificent 7 +2.5%, highlighting leadership from mega-cap tech, source: @charliebilello. For crypto traders, use the reported jump in cut odds and concurrent equity strength as a cue to monitor BTC and ETH beta and correlation versus U.S. indices for intraday positioning and liquidity conditions, source: @charliebilello.

According to @caprioleio, the S&P 500 fell about 200 points over the past two weeks as markets flipped on December rate-cut expectations, moving from roughly 90% at the start of November to 30% and then back to 70% likelihood, impacting risk assets. source: @caprioleio, Nov 24, 2025 According to @caprioleio, if this reversion in rate-cut odds continues, it is expected to carry Bitcoin somewhat higher, indicating potential near-term upside for BTC. source: @caprioleio, Nov 24, 2025

According to @BullTheoryio, a US government shutdown halts releases of jobs reports, CPI, PPI, and payrolls, forcing markets to trade on known information rather than fresh data, which the account frames as supportive for crypto. According to @BullTheoryio, the current backdrop is a cooling labor market and controlled inflation, conditions that historically favor risk assets like BTC and altcoins. According to @BullTheoryio, 400,000 to 500,000 federal workers would be furloughed without pay during a shutdown, dampening spending and softening inflation, which could increase the odds of policy easing. According to @BullTheoryio, rate cut odds are essentially 100 percent for October and above 85 percent for December, with Clean PCE cited at 2.7 percent as evidence of contained inflation. According to @BullTheoryio, markets typically dislike uncertainty during a shutdown but risk assets often rally once it ends, and BTC is already showing strength. According to @BullTheoryio, the next 1 to 2 months could see upside in BTC and altcoins as liquidity returns and inflation stays in check, with delayed data plus potential easing forming a bullish setup.

According to @rovercrc, current market odds show a 93.4% probability of a 25 bps rate cut and a 6.6% probability of a 50 bps cut, source: @rovercrc. @rovercrc states that markets will explode, signaling traders to prepare for heightened volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, source: @rovercrc. For short-term positioning, this skew in expectations supports volatility-focused setups around the decision window, source: @rovercrc.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the market currently prices only a 13% probability of a 50 bps rate cut next week and an 89% probability of a cumulative 75 bps of cuts by year-end, indicating expectations are skewed toward later-year easing rather than an immediate large cut for traders monitoring crypto market sensitivity to policy shifts (source: André Dragosch on X, Sep 10, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket traders are pricing a 70% probability of a September US Federal Reserve rate cut, indicating strong market expectations for policy easing. Source: @rovercrc. Traders may monitor this 70% odds level as a macro input when sizing BTC and ETH exposure into September policy risk. Source: @rovercrc.